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- Ndayishimiye’s CNDD-FDD party, in power for two decades, is ‘most likely’ to win the vote, analyst Rose Mumanya tells Anadolu

ISTANBUL

Burundians are set to vote Thursday in the country’s first legislative elections since 2020, when President Evariste Ndayishimiye assumed office.

Voters will choose lawmakers to serve on the National Assembly, the 123-member lower house of Burundi’s Parliament. A total of 100 deputies are directly elected, while the remaining 23 are known as co-opted members.

The exercise – which also includes district polls – represents a significant test for Ndayishimiye’s leadership, marking the first major national election since he took the top job after the death of his predecessor Pierre Nkurunziza in June 2020.

Ndayishimiye’s governing Council for the Defense of Democracy-Forces for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD-FDD), a former rebel group turned political party, has dominated Burundian politics since 2005.

The 56-year-old Ndayishimiye won the May 2020 presidential election and assumed office earlier than planned, following Nkurunziza’s unexpected death after serving three terms.

The elections are occurring against the backdrop of Ndayishimiye’s struggle to fulfill his early promises of socioeconomic improvement, complicated further by mounting tensions with neighboring Rwanda and regional security challenges, according to Rose Mumanya, a Nairobi-based political risk analyst.

Over recent years, Burundi and Rwanda have exchanged accusations about supporting rebel groups. Burundi accuses Rwanda of backing RED-Tabara, a group based in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo that Burundian authorities consider a terrorist movement. Burundi has, meanwhile, cooperated militarily with DR Congo against rebel groups such as the M23, which is accused of receiving Rwandan backing. Kigali denies the allegation.

Matters nearly came to a boiling point this March, when Ndayishimiye said in an interview with BBC that he had seen “credible intelligence” that Rwanda was planning an attack on the country, another claim that Kigali refuted.

Ethnic tensions linger despite stability measures

Burundi’s long-standing ethnic tensions between the majority Hutu and minority Tutsi communities have historically shaped its political landscape. Mumanya pointed out that although reforms have improved stability, tensions remain deeply entrenched.

These tensions nearly escalated significantly last year during discussions to review constitutional ethnic representation quotas, which allocate seats in government and parliament along ethnic lines.

“There was a big concern among members of the Tutsi community that they would be disadvantaged because the ruling party … is controlled primarily by Hutu leaders,” Mumanya explained.

However, she said Ndayishimiye “carefully” managed the situation by persuading his allies to postpone the review for another five years.

The tensions are still present in Burundi but “managed to a point where they don’t escalate into large-scale violence,” she said, but added that ethnic dynamics continue to pose a persistent challenge, with marginalized groups like the Twa facing ongoing exclusion.

“During times of heightened political tensions, such as elections, sometimes these tensions worsen and you see one-off incidents of communal violence,” Mumanya said. “But it’s highly unlikely to be large-scale.”

Complex electoral system influences representation

While Burundi’s electoral framework may seem straightforward, its implementation is intricate, involving proportional representation and quotas designed to balance ethnic and gender representation.

The National Assembly elections use a closed-list proportional representation system, where voters select party lists rather than individual candidates. Parliamentary seats are then allocated proportionally based on each party’s vote share.

Ethnic representation quotas mandate that 60% of seats are reserved for Hutus and 40% for Tutsis, with three additional seats dedicated to the Twa minority. Furthermore, at least 30% of parliamentary seats are reserved for women, reflecting a constitutional commitment to gender representation.

Independent candidates face steeper electoral hurdles, needing a minimum of 40% of the vote to secure representation, compared to just 2% required for political parties.

Mumanya described the system as clear in theory but challenging in practice, noting that these complexities often affect the representation of smaller parties and independent candidates.

Dominant ruling party faces fragmented opposition

The CNDD-FDD remains the dominant force in Burundi’s political landscape, deeply integrated into the state’s institutional structures.

“The CNDD-FDD holds the most political power, the most resources,” Mumanya emphasized, adding that its robust control gives the ruling party a significant advantage.

Meanwhile, Burundi’s main opposition party, the National Congress for Liberty (CNL), faces internal instability following the removal of its leader Agathon Rwasa earlier this year, leading to fragmentation and uncertainty within opposition ranks.

A new coalition, Burundi Bwa Bose, or Burundi for All, was formed in December 2024 by four smaller opposition parties aiming to challenge the CNDD-FDD. However, Mumanya described this coalition as “so weak and very small,” and lacking sufficient resources to mount a meaningful challenge.

Fragile stability and limited economic progress

Mumanya said the elections are widely expected to reaffirm the CNDD-FDD’s hold on power, enabling President Ndayishimiye to further consolidate authority and attempt cautious economic reforms despite considerable resistance from entrenched interests.

She said Burundi’s economic advancement remains hampered by international isolation and slow-paced reform, aggravated by persistent corruption concerns and limited foreign investment. The analyst expects economic progress to remain sluggish even with sustained diplomatic efforts to secure aid and development funding.

Mumanya said these challenges are expected to be the government’s priority for the next few years. While Ndayishimiye is likely to continue to engage with international and African leaders to secure economic agreements and aid deals, “progress will remain slow,” said the expert.

Tensions with Rwanda are expected to remain high over accusations of support for rebel groups like Red Tabara, said Mumanya, adding that Burundi will likely maintain its close military alignment with DR Congo.

“Tensions will remain elevated. Things like border closures will continue, and I think Burundi will definitely remain closer to DR Congo than it is to Rwanda,” she concluded.